Are you curious like me to find out how things will develop with Covid-19 in Cyprus? Digging into the internet I found a very interesting tool developed by the University of Basel. (https://neherlab.org/covid19/ย ). The tool implements a simple SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model where different assumptions can be implemented to calculate forecasts.
This tool is implemented to Cyprus data!
Notes:
R0 = How contagious/reproductinve an infectious disease is.
Seasonality Peak= Time of the year with peak transmission.
Cyprus Population = 890k
Then scenarios have been developed by adjusting the assumptions in order to smoothly replicate the actual trend of total cases in March and April. Multiple scenarios were created, from which I am displaying the three primary.
Optimistic Scenario: R0= 2.2, Seasonality Peak=January
Normal Scenario: R0=2.7, Seasonality Peak=January
Pessimistic Scenario: R0=2.7, Seasonality Peak=February
Charts are created in order to visualize the scenarios compared to the actual data (blue line).
Chart 1: Showing the number of cases by day. The Pessimistic Scenario looks the best fit, whereas the Normal Scenario is the second best.
Chart 2: Showing the sum of the last 3 days. This is done in order to smooth the trend and I find this chart the most valuable. The best fit is unfortunately the Pessimist Scenario.
Chart 3: A forecast of the total cases until the end of April.
Normal Scenario: ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ฌ
Normal Scenario: ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ฌ
Optimistic Scenario: ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ฌ
Therefore, based on these statistics, Cyprus tends to follow the pessimistic scenario. There are however hopes that this trend will change as the estimations do not take into account the restriction measures that were taken by the goverment.
What happens next? We have to wait and see how many incidents are reported in the following days and count the total cases of the last three days. On the 6๐กโ ๐๐ ๐ด๐๐๐๐ if the total is
~140 cases —> Pessimistic trend
~110 cases —> Normal trend
~75 cases —> Optimist trend
In case that the total 3 days is way above 140, I will implement some other scenarios I have in mind, but I try to be optimistic for now.
I hope you find this information useful and looking forward to test your ideas and assumptions or provide more information on these scenarios.
