Today I would like to comment on the expectactions for the near future. On the 4th of April, I run scenarios based on the information up to that date, and predicted some bold results. These predictions were posted on this site and on facebook page.
Today, 11 days later we are able to check these scenarios, and understand where we stand.
Chart 1: Showing the number of cases by day. Since the 4th of April it seems that the restriction measures have actually an impact since the trend line is following the Optimistic Scenario (green line).
Chart 2: Showing the sum of the last 3 days. This is done in order to smooth the trend and I find this chart the most valuable. Clearly showing how the trend altered and follows the Optimistic trend at this period.
Chart 3: A forecast of the total cases until the end of April.
The last 10 days the trend is precisely following the Optimistic Trend. It is the blue line that is actually covered by the green line.
Following the Optimistic Scenario
Having the confidence of Chart 3, it can be forecasted that by the end of April the total cases will reach close to 1000, and a dare prediction is that this milestone will take place on the first week of May.
The analysis shows that we have reached and passed the peak of the virus, which took place on the first week of April. However the downward trend is not steep, and it will take the full month of May to reach zero weekly cases. The virus total is expected to stop when about 1300 people are affected.
Needless to say that there are so many parameters that impact the scenarios, and that these predictions are based on the information known since the 9th of March. We have seen how the restriction measures have rapidly decreased the trend and similarly other developements are likely to distort the scenarios.
